The vig, the hold, and why you need to beat them both

What the vig is

Vig (a.k.a. juice, hold) is the sportsbook's built-in margin. On a standard -110/-110 spread, the book has roughly a 4.76% edge before you even place a bet.

Why this matters

To profit over the long run, you need to win more than 52.4% of the time on -110 lines. That's the break-even. Most recreational bettors don't know this, hit 50-51%, and think they're "close" to being profitable. They're not. They're net losers at roughly 4.7% per unit staked.

Professional bettors aim for 54-56%. At that clip, the vig still eats you, but your edge beats the eat.

Different markets, different vig

• ▸Standard spread/total at -110/-110: ~4.76% vig
• ▸Moneyline favorites: often similar, sometimes worse
• ▸Player props: often 10-15% vig (yes, much worse)
• ▸Parlays: vig compounds per leg, a 6-leg parlay can be 25%+ vig
• ▸Live betting: books widen vig during game action, often 8-15%

This is why sharps prefer spreads/totals over props and live. The tax is lower.

Line shopping beats the vig

Different books price the same game differently. Take a Monday Night game. DraftKings might have Chiefs -3 (-110). FanDuel might have Chiefs -3 (-105). BetMGM might have Chiefs -2.5 (-108).

That's the same market with three different prices. If you shop, you take the best number every time. Over a year of 500+ bets, this alone might be worth 2-3% to your ROI.

De-juicing to find true probability

If you see -110/-110 on a spread: - Implied probability at -110 = 110 / (110+100) = 52.38% - Both sides add to 104.76%. That 4.76% is the vig. - Fair probability on each side = 52.38% / 1.0476 = 50%

So at -110/-110, the market is saying it's truly a 50/50 game. Compare to your number. If your model says 55%, fire.

TL;DR

• ▸Vig is the book's tax, baked into every line
• ▸Standard vig is ~4.76%, but props and parlays are much worse
• ▸Line shop across 3+ books for an instant 2-3% edge boost
• ▸De-juicing turns book prices into "true" probabilities